Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.057409 0.065413 0.074393 0.085266 0.098140 0.112980 0.131498
2026-01-18 0.047430 0.057826 0.070511 0.087311 0.109258 0.137349 0.176669
2026-01-25 0.039026 0.050354 0.065195 0.086459 0.116819 0.159680 0.226788
2026-02-01 0.031919 0.043238 0.059015 0.083270 0.120849 0.179084 0.280946
2026-02-08 0.027638 0.039226 0.056378 0.084654 0.132283 0.213716 0.374600
2026-02-15 0.024158 0.035777 0.053956 0.085976 0.144474 0.254881 0.502739
2026-02-22 0.021525 0.033178 0.052399 0.088506 0.160053 0.309614 0.695159
2026-03-01 0.019241 0.030757 0.050702 0.090508 0.175831 0.373374 0.962171
2026-03-08 0.016897 0.027856 0.047640 0.089267 0.184971 0.428442 1.263607
2026-03-15 0.014412 0.024329 0.042816 0.083361 0.181979 0.453167 1.503425
2026-03-22 0.013075 0.022696 0.041328 0.084291 0.196294 0.536220 2.083185
2026-03-29 0.012125 0.021647 0.040818 0.087380 0.218026 0.659867 3.085851
2026-04-05 0.011087 0.020299 0.039512 0.088465 0.235692 0.789189 4.484956
2026-04-12 0.010152 0.019026 0.038150 0.089127 0.253076 0.938247 6.578035
2026-04-19 0.009164 0.017504 0.035967 0.087076 0.261104 1.059318 9.057918
2026-04-26 0.008186 0.015877 0.033277 0.082949 0.260303 1.141110 11.695035
2026-05-03 0.007597 0.015020 0.032287 0.083574 0.278442 1.356057 18.090108
2026-05-10 0.007076 0.014249 0.031381 0.084252 0.297845 1.616122 28.949419
2026-05-17 0.006668 0.013682 0.030896 0.086194 0.324704 1.987306 51.116702
2026-05-24 0.006283 0.013116 0.030315 0.087692 0.351241 2.426170 93.663834
2026-05-31 0.005821 0.012311 0.028963 0.086143 0.362012 2.758579 153.805994
2026-06-07 0.005252 0.011187 0.026569 0.080220 0.346102 2.786813 194.383422
2026-06-14 0.004965 0.010726 0.025973 0.080887 0.368676 3.341656 396.948993